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唱衰“金砖”的十个谎言

2017-9-4 05:42| 发布者: 中非视界| 查看: 258| 评论: 0|原作者: 王文/关兆宇|来自: 英文联播

摘要: 10 myths about Brics debunkedWang Wen and Guan ZhaoyuChongyang Institute for Financial StudiesWhen the Brics summit convenes at the Xiamen International Convention Center on Sunday, the eyes of the wo ...

10 myths about Brics debunked

Wang Wen and Guan Zhaoyu

Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies

When the Brics summit convenes at the Xiamen International Convention Center on Sunday, the eyes of the world will once again focus on China. Since the first meeting of the foreign ministers of Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2006, the Brics leaders have held nine official summits. The grouping, which also includes South Africa, has progressively realised its development agenda and made a significant contribution to the steady and consistent growth of the world economy.

2017年9月初,金砖国家领导人峰会在厦门举办,世界的目光再次聚焦中国。自2006年巴、俄、印、中四国外长首次会晤以来,金砖领导人一共举行了九次正式会晤。短短十多年的时间里,包括南非在内的“金砖”实现了递进式发展,为全球经济的持续增长做出了巨大贡献。


Despite the rapid evolution of the Brics, however, there are numerous sceptical voices in the international community to challenge the group. This year’s summit will mark the beginning of a new decade of co-operation. At this critical juncture, there is a need for myth-busting to clear up common misconceptions concerning the Brics project.

然而,面对“金砖”高速发展的既成事实,国际社会却出现了不少对“金砖”怀疑与质疑的声音。自今年开始,金砖国家合作就将开启第二个十年,在这样一个重要时间节点即将到来之际,更有必要破除看衰金砖的十大迷思。


Myth 1: the lacklustre Brics

谎言1:金砖失色论

In recent years, the decline of the Brics has been mentioned repeatedly following the overall decline of the global economy. Because commodity prices have entered a period of adjustment, energy-dependent countries such as Russia and Brazil were among the first to experience a growth-rate decline. Meanwhile, China and others have been deepening reform and structural adjustment.

近年来,在世界经济整体呈现下行态势的情况下,“金砖失色论”近年来屡被提及。确实,过去十年全球经济增速开始放缓,在这种情况下金砖国家整体增速也有所减慢;另一方面是因为大宗商品进入调整期,以俄罗斯、巴西为代表的能源依赖型国家首先遭到冲击;同时,中国等国处于深化改革、结构调整阶段。


According to 2016 IMF data, the Brics economic growth rate was 5 per cent, higher than developing countries by 0.9 percentage points and higher than developed countries by 3.3 percentage points. Brics countries accounted for more than 30 per cent of the global economy in overall size, and their contribution to global growth reached close to 60 per cent, far surpassing that of the G7 economies.

即便是如此,根据IMF数据显示,“2016年金砖国家经济平均增速为5.0%,比新兴市场与发展中国家经济增速高0.9个百分点,比发达经济体经济增速高3.3个百分点。”2016年金砖国家总体占全球经济比重超过30%,贡献率甚至接近60%,这样的经济比重和贡献率远远超过七国集团机制(G7)。


It should be emphasised that the Brics countries have strong capabilities for structural adjustment and adaptation. For instance, Russia has endured economic hardship over the past few years. The World Bank’s official website recently released the latest Russia Economic Report, which notes Russian economic development is improving and it will gradually escape the economic recession that began in 2014. Russia’s economic growth in 2017 is expected to be about 1.3 per cent and about 1.4 per cent in 2018 and 2019. Clearly, the facts do not support the lacklustre Brics theory.

值得强调的是,金砖国家具有强大的结构调整能力与适应能力。近年来经济低迷的俄罗斯与巴西都在复苏中。2017年俄罗斯经济增长预期约为1.3%,2018年和2019年约为1.4%。巴西2017年经济增长预期为0.47%,2018年则为2.5%。加之中国、印度经济均稳定在7%左右的增速。可以说,“金砖失色论”是完全立不住的。显然,这不支持金砖褪色的理论。


Myth 2: the hollow Brics

谎言2:外金里砖论

Since its emergence, doubts surrounding the economic foundation and growth potential of the Brics countries have persisted. Indeed, the Brics countries are facing domestic problems and challenges, but the fundamentals of the Brics countries are stable and there is enormous potential for development.

自从出现以来,对金砖国家经济基础和增长潜力的质疑一直存在。没错,金砖国家面临着国内问题和挑战,但金砖国家基础稳定,有巨大增长潜力。


China’s industrial and manufacturing capacity is the largest in the world. China’s steel, machinery, chemical, high-speed rail, aerospace and other industries are among the world’s best. 

中国的工业和制造能力全世界最强。中国的钢铁、机械、化学、高铁、航空和其他产业首屈一指。


Russia has abundant oil and gas reserves, and its military industry and capabilities in higher education, science, and technology research and development are recognised globally. It is worth mentioning that the world leading telecommunications giant Huawei is establishing its first overseas mathematics institute in Russia.

俄罗斯拥有丰富的石油和天然气储备,军工及高等教育和科技研发方面的能力得到全球认可。值得一提的是,世界领先的电信巨头华为正在俄国建立其第一家海外数学研究所。


India has significant advantages in scientific and technological innovation, with software, pharmaceutical, and other high-tech industries that have developed to advanced international levels.

印度在科技创新方面拥有重要优势,软件、制药和其他高技术产业已经达到国际先进水平。


South Africa benefits from substantial endowments of natural resources. As the largest economy in southern Africa, it can spread benefits and promote development in Africa, which is beneficial to the co-ordination of the five Brics countries to address global and regional issues such as climate change, United Nations reform, human rights, food, and poverty.

南非则得益于巨大的自然资源禀赋,作为南部非洲最大经济体,可以让整个非洲受益,促进非洲发展。非洲受益于五个国家协作解决全球及地区问题,如气候变化、联合国改革、人权、食品和脱贫。


Brazil has enjoyed a strong industrial system since the 1970s; it has abundant mineral resources, water resources, and the Amazon region is home to tremendous biological and ecological resources. Brazil’s future has unlimited potential.

自上世纪七十年代以来,巴西拥有强大的工业体系,矿产资源和水资源丰富,亚马逊地区是巨大的生物和生态资源包括。巴西的未来不可限量。


Myth 3: the Brics talking shop

谎言3:空谈俱乐部论

Many in the western media have criticised Brics co-operation for having few achievements and they satirise it as an “empty talking shop”. This neglects many of the Brics achievements since inception.

许多西方媒体批评金砖国家合作乏善可陈,讽刺“空谈馆”。这从一开始就忽视了金砖国家取得的诸多成就。


Since the first 2006 meeting, the Brics countries have started from scratch to become a strong force in global governance. Co-operation among Brics countries is not limited to the economic field alone, but has gradually expanded to cover sports, culture and other areas of dynamic co-operation.

2006年第一次会议以来,金砖国家白手起家,成为全球治理的重要力量。金砖国家间的合作不限于经济领域,逐步扩展到体育、文化等多领域的合作。


In recent years, China has surpassed Japan to become Brazil’s most important “football trade partner” in Asia. We all know that Brazil is a football superpower and the prospects of China-Brazil sports co-operation under the Brics mechanism are quite broad. In 2017, the first Brics National Games were held in Guangzhou in June. At the same time the Brics National Film Festival was also held in Chengdu. 

近年来,中国超过日本成为巴西在亚洲最重要的“足球贸易伙伴”。我们都知道巴西是最求超级大国,在金砖体制下中巴体育合作前景非常广阔。2017年6月,第一届金砖国家运动会在广州举办。同时,金砖国家电影节在成都举办。


The Brics summit in Xiamen this year will establish and improve pragmatic co-operation during the next phase, in areas such as investment, trade, humanities, tourism and currency. The existing mechanisms and projects will be further deepened in the future.

今年的厦门金砖峰会将把务实合作推到新阶段,在投资、贸易、人文、旅游和货币领域开展合作。现有机制和项目未来将进一步深化。


Myth 4: the dysfunctional Brics

谎言4:机制无效论

Compared with other types of organisations, the Brics countries currently adopt a soft mechanism — but some sceptics believe that the Brics countries are disorganised in that they have no clear purpose, no statute and no permanent secretariat — thereby concluding that the Brics are “dysfunctional”. However, this assessment is based on biased assumptions and thinking.

与其他组织类型相比,金砖国家目前采用一种软机制模式,但是有些质疑者认为金砖国家是“三无组织”,即“无明确宗旨”“无章程”“无常设秘书处”,“机制无效论”就这样产生了。这一评论是以固化思维和眼光审视金砖国家机制,势必会存在偏颇。


Over the past decade since 2006 when the first meeting of foreign ministers included Brazil, Russia, India, and China, in 2009, the leaders of the four countries held a meeting in Yekaterinburg, Russia; and in 2010, as the rotating president, China invited South Africa to become a member of the Brics.

金砖十年是递进式发展的。2006年,巴、俄、印、中四国外长首次会晤;2009年,四国领导人在俄罗斯叶卡捷琳娜堡第一次召开会议;2010年中国作为轮值主席国邀请南非成为成员国。


In 2009, the joint statement issued by Brics leaders after the Yekaterinburg meeting included just 15 articles, which when translated into Chinese was only 1,500 characters long. By 2016 at the Goa meeting the statement included 109 articles, and the translated Chinese version reached 13,000 characters. The length of the statement is a clear indicator of proliferating Brics co-operation.

2009年,金砖国家领导人在叶卡捷琳堡会晤后的联合声明仅有15条,翻译为中文约1500字。到2016年果阿会晤时,声明已多达109条,翻译为中文近1.3万字。声明的长度是一个清晰的指标,显示金砖机制下的内容不断丰富。


Today, there are more than 100 meetings related to Brics held each year, from the leaders’ meetings, the ministerial meetings, to the relevant working groups and conference mechanisms in various fields, to specific projects and activities. The Brics mechanism is being developed and perfected and is increasing in vitality.

目前,每年与“金砖”有关的会议机制已超过100个。从领导人会晤、部长级会议,到相关工作组和各领域的会议机制,再到具体的项目和活动,金砖机制不断发展完善,展现了极强的生命力。


Myth 5: the schizophrenic Brics

谎言5:金砖无芯论

There are many differences among the Brics countries’ ideologies, political systems, and historical traditions. Therefore, some people criticise a lack of a clear understanding in Brics co-operation.

金砖五国意识形态、政治制度、历史传统等都有很大差异。因此,有些人诟病金砖合作缺乏明确的价值观,即“金砖无芯论”。


However, these people ignore the fact that Brics countries share the common value of reform and development. Reform is meant to improve global economic governance; to reform the unfair, unreasonable, and imperfect aspects of the old governance systems. Development is to promote developing countries in the global agenda, and establish a sustainable path so that economic globalisation can evolve in a more balanced way. 

不过,这些人没有看到,金砖国家有非常明晰的共同价值观——改革与发展。改革,就是要完善全球经济治理,改革旧有治理体系中不公正、不合理、不完善的地方;发展,就是要促进发展中国家的发展议程,建立可持续的发展路径,让经济全球化朝着更加均衡的方向发展。


The Brics have achieved two firsts in human history. First, it is the first multilateral mechanism created and led by non-Western countries and developing countries. Before the Brics, all multilateral mechanisms were created by the great powers of Europe and the US. Second, it is the first time the collective rise of great powers have pursed the goals of peace and co-operation. 

金砖机制开创了人类历史上的“两个第一”:首先,这是人类历史上第一次由非西方国家、非发达国家领衔和参与的大国多边机制;金砖国家第一次出现了没有任何一个欧美国家的大国多边机制,这是人类历史上的第一次。第二,人类历史上第一次大国集体性崛起旨在寻求和平、合作的大国目标。


Throughout human history, there have been nine instances of great powers rising. From the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Britain, etc the appearance of these great powers saw the pursuit of hegemony and wars. Only the emergence of the Brics has clearly made peace and co-operation the first priority, which is a contribution to international relations and human development.

人类历史上,曾先后有九个大国崛起,从荷兰、葡萄牙、西班牙、英国等,每一个大国崛起寻求的都是争霸和战争,只有金砖的崛起是在纲领中明确说是寻求和平与合作,这是对国际关系进程和人类发展最大的贡献。


Myth 6: the China-dominated Brics

谎言6:中国独大论

As the largest economy among the Brics, China’s GDP is greater than the sum total of the other four members combined. It has been claimed that China “dominates” Brics co-operation. It is fair to say that China is the biggest economic player but the Brics are a not a forum where economic size determines leadership.

中国作为“金砖”当中经济总量最大的国家,其GDP甚至超过其它四国之和,这就有人散播,说“中国压制其他四国”,金砖合作成了“中国独大”。说中国是“大块头”没错,因为从经济总量来看,这是个事实。但是,中国虽然在经济实力上一家独大,但是金砖国家并不是“以块头论英雄”的地方。

The Brics stress democracy and pursue equality of voting rights. Compared with the US dominance in the G7 mechanism, the Brics mechanism is more equal.

金砖国家讲求民主,追求投票权的平等。相比于G7机制中的美国独大,金砖机制更平等。


History also proves that hegemony is not China’s motive, nor does China have the capability to act as a hegemon. China’s goal is to allow more countries to join in on China’s economic development, to pursue mutual benefit and joint development, and in line with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, construct “joint discussions, joint construction, and shared benefits”.

历史也可以证明,霸道从来不是中国的行事风格,独大的实力更不是中国炫耀的资本,中国的目标是让世界更多国家搭上中国经济发展的快车,互利共赢、共同发展。这与中国推动“一带一路”建设“共商、共建、共享”的理念也是相符的。


Myth 7: the disruptive Brics

谎言7:金砖革命论

From the beginning of Brics co-operation, many have claimed the “Brics will destroy the G7”, and the “the Brics will ruin the international economic order”, giving rise to the myth that the Brics are disruptive.

从金砖国家第一次合作开始,就有一些声音在说,“金砖要革G7的命”,“要革国际经济秩序的命”,这就是“金砖革命论”。

The Brics countries are actively involved in the reform of the international order, active in the international arena, in the G20, and participate in climate change and other aspects of multilateral diplomacy. As new trends appear in the new era, when confronted by new challenges, the existing international order will be unable to meet the development needs of most countries in the world if they do not reform.

金砖国家在国际舞台上不断散发活力,在G20峰会、气候变化以及其他多边外交场合,金砖国家一直积极参与并推动国际秩序的改革。新时期出现了新现象,面临着新挑战,现有国际秩序若再不改革,已经不能满足世界大多数国家的发展需求。


However, the Brics countries are not revolutionaries but reformers. The Brics countries do not intend to reinvent the wheel but are active supporters of the United Nations and staunch advocates of the G20. The Brics do not seek to replace the US, replace the West, or replace the existing international political and economic order but hope that the current international order can adapt to the new era through reform.

金砖国家并不是“革命者”,而是“改革者”。金砖国家并不追求另起炉灶,而是联合国的积极拥护者,是G20的坚定支持者。金砖国家组织不追求取代美国、取代西方、取代现有国际政治经济秩序,而是希望通过改革,让现有国际秩序适应新的时代。

  

The Brics declarations have already stated this clearly. Article six of the Goa summit declaration in 2016 states the Brics “reaffirm that it is necessary for the Brics countries to uphold the spirit of solidarity, mutual understanding, and trust and strengthen the co-ordination and pragmatic co-operation in global affairs. We emphasise the common response to international issues, the importance of tackling controversial issues peacefully through political and diplomatic channels, and reaffirm our commitment to the principles of the charter of the United Nations.”

金砖国家自身的宣言已经说明了这一点。2016年《果阿峰会宣言》第六条表明,“我们重申,金砖国家有必要秉持团结、相互理解和信任的精神,加强全球事务的协调和务实合作。我们强调共同应对国际问题,以及通过政治和外交途径和平解决争端的重要性,并重申我们对《联合国宪章》原则的承诺。”


This adequately reflects the Brics support for the existing international order.

这一表述充分体现了对于现有国际秩序坚定地支持。


Myth 8: the infighting Brics

谎言8:金砖失和论

In recent days, China and India experienced a confrontation along the two countries’ border. With the Brics summit approaching, some media have said that there is internal conflict and disagreement among Brics. Indeed, internal differences and conflicts do exist but mutual interests, strategic co-operation, and collaboration are the main direction of the Brics.

近日来,中印在边境领土问题上出现对峙情况,又恰逢金砖峰会临近,一些外媒由此大肆唱衰金砖机制,大唱“金砖失和论”。确实,金砖国家“就像来自五个星球一样”,内部的分歧与矛盾是存在的,磕磕碰碰也在所难免,但利益交汇、战略协作与合作才是金砖国家合作的主流与大局。

In fact, struggles between member states within other international organisations are widespread. The G7 was established more than 40 years ago but the contradictions between the US and the other six countries have never disappeared. In 1985, the Plaza Accord planned in advance for the 10 years of the Japanese bubble economy, which has persisted to this day. 

其实,国际组织中成员国之间的斗争也屡见不鲜。G7集团至今40余年,美国与其他六国的矛盾从未停歇过。1985年,一纸“广场协议”为日本泡沫十年提前编好了剧本,至今没有剧终。


In 2014, Russia was “dismissed” from the group after less than 10 years of membership. Compared with these conflicts, the Brics countries are much more united. There are many instances of Brics countries working together to resolve their differences. China and Russia solving their territorial issues through negotiations is the best example. The Brics mechanism is not a catalyst for conflict globally but provides a communication platform for countries, thus reducing friction.

2014年,加入G7集团不到十年的俄罗斯被“开除”。与这些相比,金砖国家的团结度已经高出很多。金砖国家认真解决分歧的案例也比比皆是。中俄通过谈判解决领土问题就是最好的“样板”。金砖机制不是矛盾的催化剂,而是为各国提供了沟通的平台,有利于各国减少摩擦。


Myth 9: the exclusive Brics

谎言9:金砖排他论

The Brics have not expanded membership since bringing in South Africa in 2010. Because of this, some have criticised the Brics for being “exclusionary”. Since its inception, the Brics as a group has existed for 10 years but the membership of the G7 has not changed in 40 years. Compared with the G7, the Brics is still in the developmental stage, and there is still room for greater development.

自2010年吸纳南非进入金砖国家组织以来,便再无扩员行动,基于此,金砖国家组织就被冠以“排他之说”。金砖国家组织自成立以来,至今才走过不到10年,G7从1975年成立时的G6至今,成员国数量也并未太大变化。与G7相比,金砖国家组织尚处于发展阶段,还存在更大的发展空间。

Compared with the G7 exclusive “rich country club”, the co-operation of the Brics countries is open and inclusive; it has even begun to expand, as manifested by the “Brics+” mechanism. First, the mechanism includes a dialogue between the Brics countries and large, rapidly developing countries, as well as other emerging ones. This means that more developing countries will join.

与G7作为“富国俱乐部”的封闭集团性质相比,金砖国家的合作具有开放包容的特性,不仅不排他,而且已经开始拓展,表现为“金砖+”机制。第一,这表现为金砖国家同其他发展中大国和发展中国家组织进行对话。第二,这意味着更多发展型国家加入其中。


Indonesia, Turkey and Mexico could potentially join Brics co-operation in the future. More importantly, “Brics+” also represents the aims of the Brics mechanism in that it speaks for the majority of developing countries and seeks development assistance for them. Thus, it is impossible to believe the “exclusive Brics” myth.

此次厦门峰会也邀请了印度尼西亚、墨西哥等国领导人参加,更多新兴国家加入到金砖合作机制中是有可能的。更重要的是,“金砖+”还代表了金砖机制为广大发展中国家代言、谋求发展利益的宗旨。因此,“金砖排他论”并非正确。


Myth 10: the irrelevant Brics

谎言10:金砖务虚论

Many people think that as an economic and financial co-operation mechanism, the Brics are impractical, only talking about strategy and rarely getting to details for implementation. Thus they have been called the “irrelevant Brics”.

不少人认为,作为一个经济与金融合作机制,金砖集团太务虚了,只“仰望星空”谈战略,却很少“脚踏实地”干实事,这就是“金砖务虚论”。


The Brics mechanism has undergone a decade of development, successfully set up emergency foreign exchange reserves, established the Brics New Development Bank, and expanded into other types of practical co-operation. A new type of international mechanism for financial opening and macro-control is taking shape. 

金砖机制经历了十年的发展,已经完成了内部共建应急储备安排、成立金砖国家新开发银行、金砖扩容探讨启动等务实合作。一种新型的国际金融新开放机制与宏观调控体系正在形成。


The first batch of the Brics projects will focus on spreading the application of projects such as Shanghai’s new smart energy demonstration project, the Brazilian renewable energy transfer project, the Indian renewable energy power supply and loan project, South Africa’s transmission network and other new energy projects. Meanwhile, renewable energy power generation and transformation projects will be a platform. In financing, after the issuance of renminbi bonds by the new development bank for the first time in China, these will also be made available in India, Brazil, and Russia.

以金砖银行为例,金砖国家首批项目将会在上海的智慧新能源示范项目、巴西可再生能源转贷项目、印度可再生能源电力装机转贷项目及南非的输电网络等新能源上推广应用,同时也有可再生能源发电转型项目等。在筹资方面,新发展银行在2016年在中国首度发行人民币债券之后,还会在印度、巴西、俄罗斯发行债券。


In recent years, empty capital flows and derivatives are flooding into capital markets. The Brics’ plan to reform the global financial system will bring finance back into the service of the real economy and the interests of ordinary people around the world. In this sense, the Brics are trying to introduce more pragmatism to the international financial system and eliminate irrelevant and fictitious assets.

近年来金融空转,衍生品泛滥,金砖的务实合作内容就包括推进金融体系的改革,让金融回归到实体经济,让金融回归到造福世界人民福祉的本质,这也是国际金融体系中的“金砖方案”。所以,金砖不仅不是“务虚”,而是“去虚”。


Due to the above 10 misconceptions about the Brics, many people misunderstand and have negative views of the Brics, assuming they don’t harbour intentional malice toward the group. These arguments are reminiscent of the half-baked “China collapse” theory and suspicions surrounding the Belt and Road Initiative. 

基于上述十个错误论断上,一些人看衰金砖的未来实在是对金砖国家不了解,如果他不是故意唱衰的话。这种论调也让人想起了前些年被热炒的“中国崩溃论”以及近来被“恶意担忧”的“一带一路”倡议。

Some people argue that global trade is in decline and thus the Brics will decline as well due to the lack of a suitable environment. This is obviously flawed logic. Since the general atmosphere is not promising, the Brics countries should be more united to overcome the difficulties.

一些人说全球贸易下降了,金砖就不好搞了——大环境不好,于是国家合作就不好,这个逻辑是明显错误的。恰恰是因为大环境不好,才需要金砖国家“抱团取暖”。



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